CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-04-15T12:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-04-15T12:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24645/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible in the N/NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in the N/NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen lifting off in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2023-04-15T10:00Z. Dimming is also observed in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195. Arrival occurs near 2023-04-19T09:22Z with extended rotations in the By and Bz magnetic field components as observed by ACE/DSCOVR. This might mean a crossing between the nose and the flank (more towards the flank). The plasma signatures are not very straightforward. This can be because the ICME arrives at the back of the SIR or because of the flank crossing. The possible end of the ICME is 2023-04-21T05:14Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-04-19T09:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-19T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24647/1 Model Inputs: 2023-04-15T12:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-14.0, Lat.=26.0, Speed=390.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2023-04-15T21:21Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-04-19T12:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=3 Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-04-19T10:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230415_212100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 85.98 hour(s)
Difference: -2.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-04-15T19:23Z
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